Well other than one quick post last week, I have missed a great deal to blog about over the past few months. So for the third time ever here, I'll do a quick recap of a few different things.
So without further ado, here is a recap of the last few months...
The King is Dead
Obviously the story that received the most media attention this summer was the passing of Michael Jackson. While it is certainly sad to see anyone pass away at a mere 50 years, I am certainly in the camp of people who say that this story was massively overblown. I have certainly always been a fan of his music, but his all too bizarre public persona left a great deal to be desired. I am wondering exactly where all of these fans and celebrity friends of his were when he was slowly poisoning himself with drugs and on this sad downward spiral that we all played witness to. From all reports it seemed like Jackson took the media's fascination with his self-destruction to heart, causing him to self-destruct even more.
While any of Jackson's choices remain his own to make, the media, and those of us who consumed any story about how weird he got with great zeal need to shoulder some of the blame for what happened. Everyone talks about how tragic his death was, but the reality is that his life was the real tragedy.
Of course, yesterday there was a huge bomb dropped, where it was revealed that his death is being treated as a homicide. I'm not sure what to believe anymore. I'll reserve comment on that for a later time I guess.
The Point Guard Makes the Pass...or Something Like That
Another huge story over the summer was Sarah Palin's resignation as Governor of Alaska. I know that I was certainly surprised by this one, yet in hindsight I don't know why. Since bursting onto the national stage less than a year ago, she has done everything she can to stay in the spotlight. As she returned to Alaska people started to forget about her. She needed to jump back into centre stage, and Alaska is certainly not the place for her to do that.
I do not truly understand the appeal that this woman has. It's as if someone in the Republican Party said “Hey, George Bush is not stupid, folksy, Evangelical, or hawkish enough” and Palin was born from that. I honestly feel that this woman is the biggest threat to the United States in the world, and the thought of her holding the highest office in the land is downright terrifying. For some reason the Rush Limbaugh wing of the party seems to love her, despite the fact that she proved to be a disastrous addition to McCain's campaign and ultimately lead to his downfall. She is just as much of an empty headed celebrity as they claimed Obama to be.
Free Agent Frenzy
Yet again the NHL's annual summer auction was fast and furious with all sorts of big names changes homes. I will have more to talk about this one later on, but I think that the signings of Cammalleri and Komisarek were the best, with the Hossa and Gaborik signings being the worst. I also really liked the Pronger trade, for both teams, and I think that it places both teams in a solid position when the fall starts.
Heel Turn of the Century
Once more I am going to talk a bit about internet darling CM Punk, who shocked the world when he cashed his Money in the Bank contract in at Extreme Rules on Jeff Hardy. Since then they two have been involved in one of the best feuds that the wrestling world has seen in a while which seems to be wrapping up now with Hardy leaving the company.. I couldn't be happier with this as Punk was made to play a heel, and I'm frankly surprised that it took the WWE this long to cash in on the heel potential of Straight Edge wrestler. (For the record: I CALLED IT...even if I didn't think that it would happen this soon).
Lockdown
After a series of civil unrest in China and Iran, internet censorship is back in full force. Web 2.0 in particular has been blocked. With Twitter, Facebook, and yes even Blogger all getting blocked. Right now I am posting through a VPN. This slows things down and makes life rather difficult.
While I am complaining about it as a mere inconvenience to me, there are many people who are under severe oppression as a result of this. Ignorance remains strength.
On a Personal Note
I had the pleasure of returning to Canada for the first time in almost a year for most of July. It was fantastic and surreal to return after so long, as I truly missed a great deal about home. I also got to head to New York City for the first time ever and I was able to travel for a bit in Western China, which was both all kinds of awesome (read about those adventures here).
Now for the first time since I graduated from Acadia in 2004 I will be doing the same thing for two years in a row. While I find the familiarity of returning to Suzhou a touch daunting, I am excited to be a little bit more settled, even if it is for just a short time.
Until next time,
G
Showing posts with label Real Politiking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Politiking. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Sunday, June 07, 2009
You Can Be Censored Under My Umberella-ella-ella
Just in case any of you were worried, there was not a hint of unrest or disorder in my part of China last Thursday on the anniversary of what shant be named. As I mentioned in my post on the day, the internet was less than accessible, and some careful subversion had to be done to get around the Great Firewall of China. However, all was for not because at the end of the day not a heck of a lot happened.
The one interesting story comes from the CNN, BBC, and AFP reporters who had the strangest form of censorship that we may have ever seen. As their reporters were on the edge of the square attempting to report on the day, they had plain clothes officers with large umbrellas come in between the journalists and their camera to try to attempt to block the shot. I understand what they were trying to do but it came across as being pretty stupid. I'm not sure who came up with this idea, but I am sure that they did not deserve a raise for it.
Check it out for yourself (courtesy of the Shangaiist):
Great eh? How about it as a video...
If that wasn't enough, check out this great remix of it, sadly there is no Rihanna involved....
Umbrellas, saving the masses from the horrible truth since 2009.
Until next time,
G
The one interesting story comes from the CNN, BBC, and AFP reporters who had the strangest form of censorship that we may have ever seen. As their reporters were on the edge of the square attempting to report on the day, they had plain clothes officers with large umbrellas come in between the journalists and their camera to try to attempt to block the shot. I understand what they were trying to do but it came across as being pretty stupid. I'm not sure who came up with this idea, but I am sure that they did not deserve a raise for it.
Check it out for yourself (courtesy of the Shangaiist):
Great eh? How about it as a video...
If that wasn't enough, check out this great remix of it, sadly there is no Rihanna involved....
Umbrellas, saving the masses from the horrible truth since 2009.
Until next time,
G
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Ignorance is Strength
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
Party Mottoes, 1984
Some days I feel like I am living in Orwell's nightmare.
Today is an important anniversary of a solemn event, or maybe it is a day like any other, it all depends on who you ask, or who you don't ask. As many of you may know, twenty years ago today an infamous student protest in China drew the wrath of the government and their tanks, and many people were killed. Pardon me for using cryptic language, but I do not want to attract the attention of the powers that be in the country I reside in.
There has been a huge crackdown in the buildup to this day. A few months ago YouTube was banned, and blogger is currently banned (I am posting this via a proxy), while Wordpress has been banned since I arrived in August. The most recent additions to this were Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail which went down on Tuesday (eerily as I type the rough draft for this post). Interestingly, the on-again-off-again bans on sites like BBC, Wikipedia, and Google are not in effect. In essence websites that allow regular people like me to communicate with the outside world (through posting videos or blogs) are not allowed. Somebody is worried that something is going to happen.
Also, the popular messaging system Skype, is very difficult to download in this country, instead it diverts you to a program called TOM-Skype, which restricts some of the messages that you send. For example, if you try to send the F word the message will not go through. I read reports (not going to link, too dangerous at this time) of it tracking the use of certain hotbed words that the people in charge would not like.
But the internet is not alone in it's censoring. Apparently there has been some grassroots movement to get people to wear white (the colour of mourning in Asia) on the day. There is a rumour persisting that newscasters are not to wear white for the next several weeks (which appears to be adhered to by turning on the television). A few weeks ago, an interesting bit of news came out that 300,000 newspapers had to be recalled because it had an incredibly subversive photo in it. Just in case you didn't see it when it made the rounds a few weeks ago, check it out.
Do you get why it was somehow subversive? I'll give you a hint, look at the pants of people in the front row. Now divide the picture in two and count the people on either side. Now think of today's date.
There are six people on the right side and four people on the left side, translate that into a date and you have today. Look at the four digit number on the little boy's pants in the bottom left and you have the year that the event took place.
Think about this for a second or two. If this was something that someone caught after the fact, what more obvious things are being caught before publication? I imagine someone refusing to publish an image because it bears a picture of someone who resembles a certain spiritual leader or not taking an ad for the classified because every 5th word spelled out the National Anthem for the island that China claims to be its own. I'm probably wrong, but maybe not too far off. If this picture is deemed subversive, what else gets to be in the same category?
All of this is done with one simple mission in mind: to restrict the flow of information. In other words, the government wants to keep people ignorant in order to keep the nation strong. Ignorance is strength.
What I find the saddest about all of this is how most of the concern comes from outside of the country. In the two decades that have passed since this event China has undergone a tremendous economic boom. Naturally in times of economic fortune people tend to not focus on problems with the government, and demands for change lessen. This coupled with the party's crackdown has made many of the demands of the original dissenters disappear.
Most people in this country seem to be living in a bit of a fool's paradise, similar to how I imagine America being in the 1950s, and even the 1990s. There were certainly bad things happening in the country then, but people mostly kept quiet because things were going well and they did not want to rock the boat. Flash forward a decade in either case, and the economy starts to fall and people start to protest more about the “corrupt government” and “illegal wars” which were going on before, but nobody ever cared when they were making money.
The party seems to have found the right mix of 1984 and Brave New World. Oppress people and control information while giving them all sorts of distractions that they have never imagined. Either way, it is keeping people in this country from the one thing that they truly need for development, the truth.
Until next time,
G
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
Party Mottoes, 1984
Some days I feel like I am living in Orwell's nightmare.
Today is an important anniversary of a solemn event, or maybe it is a day like any other, it all depends on who you ask, or who you don't ask. As many of you may know, twenty years ago today an infamous student protest in China drew the wrath of the government and their tanks, and many people were killed. Pardon me for using cryptic language, but I do not want to attract the attention of the powers that be in the country I reside in.
There has been a huge crackdown in the buildup to this day. A few months ago YouTube was banned, and blogger is currently banned (I am posting this via a proxy), while Wordpress has been banned since I arrived in August. The most recent additions to this were Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail which went down on Tuesday (eerily as I type the rough draft for this post). Interestingly, the on-again-off-again bans on sites like BBC, Wikipedia, and Google are not in effect. In essence websites that allow regular people like me to communicate with the outside world (through posting videos or blogs) are not allowed. Somebody is worried that something is going to happen.
Also, the popular messaging system Skype, is very difficult to download in this country, instead it diverts you to a program called TOM-Skype, which restricts some of the messages that you send. For example, if you try to send the F word the message will not go through. I read reports (not going to link, too dangerous at this time) of it tracking the use of certain hotbed words that the people in charge would not like.
But the internet is not alone in it's censoring. Apparently there has been some grassroots movement to get people to wear white (the colour of mourning in Asia) on the day. There is a rumour persisting that newscasters are not to wear white for the next several weeks (which appears to be adhered to by turning on the television). A few weeks ago, an interesting bit of news came out that 300,000 newspapers had to be recalled because it had an incredibly subversive photo in it. Just in case you didn't see it when it made the rounds a few weeks ago, check it out.
Do you get why it was somehow subversive? I'll give you a hint, look at the pants of people in the front row. Now divide the picture in two and count the people on either side. Now think of today's date.
There are six people on the right side and four people on the left side, translate that into a date and you have today. Look at the four digit number on the little boy's pants in the bottom left and you have the year that the event took place.
Think about this for a second or two. If this was something that someone caught after the fact, what more obvious things are being caught before publication? I imagine someone refusing to publish an image because it bears a picture of someone who resembles a certain spiritual leader or not taking an ad for the classified because every 5th word spelled out the National Anthem for the island that China claims to be its own. I'm probably wrong, but maybe not too far off. If this picture is deemed subversive, what else gets to be in the same category?
All of this is done with one simple mission in mind: to restrict the flow of information. In other words, the government wants to keep people ignorant in order to keep the nation strong. Ignorance is strength.
What I find the saddest about all of this is how most of the concern comes from outside of the country. In the two decades that have passed since this event China has undergone a tremendous economic boom. Naturally in times of economic fortune people tend to not focus on problems with the government, and demands for change lessen. This coupled with the party's crackdown has made many of the demands of the original dissenters disappear.
Most people in this country seem to be living in a bit of a fool's paradise, similar to how I imagine America being in the 1950s, and even the 1990s. There were certainly bad things happening in the country then, but people mostly kept quiet because things were going well and they did not want to rock the boat. Flash forward a decade in either case, and the economy starts to fall and people start to protest more about the “corrupt government” and “illegal wars” which were going on before, but nobody ever cared when they were making money.
The party seems to have found the right mix of 1984 and Brave New World. Oppress people and control information while giving them all sorts of distractions that they have never imagined. Either way, it is keeping people in this country from the one thing that they truly need for development, the truth.
Until next time,
G
Monday, June 01, 2009
Dr. Atmoic or How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Start Loving Geopolitics
It seems like whenever I click on some news somebody is always talking North Korea, and their nuclear ambitions. It seems like everybody is ready for World War III to start on the Korean Peninsula. It seems like nobody is taking the time to realize that nothing is going to change.
That's right, there will be no nuclear war, no reunification, just more of the same status-quo that has persisted for the last 56 years. This is just another big scare that will inevitably blow over, and things will continue on as they are.
Sure, the North seems to have nuclear capabilities (maybe), and long range missiles (definitely) which seem like quite the game changer, but we can't forget the ultimate x-factor, and biggest benefactor from the way that things are, China.
Allow me to give a quick overview of East Asian geopolitics. The unquestioned forces are Japan and China, which are currently the 2nd and 3rd largest economies in the world, respectively (although they will probably flip by the end of the year). China has a very large military, and while Japan does not have any forces of their own, they have near unquestioned support of the Americans. Japan and China have long been distrustful of the other, and have been at war with each other several times in their history, most notably during WWII. Conveniently, between the two nations, there is the Korean Peninsula. This was divided at the conclusion of the Second World War, with the southern half being in the US sphere of influence, and the Northern half being in the Soviet sphere of influence. North Korea quickly became a reclusive state, relying on itself, and only itself, with the South has grown into a very vibrant economy and has served as a model for development in Asia.
While the South has been culturally closer to Japan, in recent years it's economy has been getting closer to China's. According to John Pomfret's blog on the Washington Post "Why China Won't Do More With North Korea" (the inspiration for this post), he mentions that China is South Korea's largest trading partner. While this may seem surprising, let me tell you from the inside that there are a LOT of very wealthy Korean companies doing business in China. Almost forty percent of the students at the international school that I currently work at are Korean and those kids do not come from poverty.
This huge amount of money pouring into the PRC is helping fund the current economic boom, and China needs to keep it that way. Obviously a thermonuclear war in a country that has so much investment in China is not in their best economic interests. So they will do nothing to help empower the North in a horrible to "reclaim" the South.
All of this Korean money is flowing into China because, quite frankly, there is not much else for them to develop in their own country. However, should the North collapse a massive humanitarian and economic undertaking would ensue. The North would need to be developed in a bad, bad way which would trigger require a flow of capital and efforts from companies like Samsung and Dae Woo, which are currently doing business in China. Given the current economic climate, it is likely that any of those companies would need to contract elsewhere in order to set up shop in North Korea, which would probably mean a lot of them would move out of China. China can not let this happen, certainly not while their economy continues to benefit from Korean involvment in the country.
Also, should the North fall and the Peninsula become unified, there is the pesky question of the ethnic Koreans living in the Chinese Northeast. A huge swell in Korean nationalism would no doubt catalyze the notion that those people should join their reunified homeland. Jilin and Liaoning provinces both have sizeable Korean populations, and should they ever get vocal about their land leaving China, then the PRC has large problems on its hand. They already have enough seperatist regions to deal with, why add another one? Especially one that would have Japan and America's sympathy? Jilin in particular has a great deal of national resources, notably iron, coal, and oil, which an industrializing nation like China certainly needs and could not afford to jeopordize.
China is in a clear case of "damned if we do" with very little "damned if we don't". This can only lead us to one conclusion, we're going to get more of the same, so you can crawl out of the bomb shelter.
Until next time,
G
That's right, there will be no nuclear war, no reunification, just more of the same status-quo that has persisted for the last 56 years. This is just another big scare that will inevitably blow over, and things will continue on as they are.
Sure, the North seems to have nuclear capabilities (maybe), and long range missiles (definitely) which seem like quite the game changer, but we can't forget the ultimate x-factor, and biggest benefactor from the way that things are, China.
Allow me to give a quick overview of East Asian geopolitics. The unquestioned forces are Japan and China, which are currently the 2nd and 3rd largest economies in the world, respectively (although they will probably flip by the end of the year). China has a very large military, and while Japan does not have any forces of their own, they have near unquestioned support of the Americans. Japan and China have long been distrustful of the other, and have been at war with each other several times in their history, most notably during WWII. Conveniently, between the two nations, there is the Korean Peninsula. This was divided at the conclusion of the Second World War, with the southern half being in the US sphere of influence, and the Northern half being in the Soviet sphere of influence. North Korea quickly became a reclusive state, relying on itself, and only itself, with the South has grown into a very vibrant economy and has served as a model for development in Asia.
While the South has been culturally closer to Japan, in recent years it's economy has been getting closer to China's. According to John Pomfret's blog on the Washington Post "Why China Won't Do More With North Korea" (the inspiration for this post), he mentions that China is South Korea's largest trading partner. While this may seem surprising, let me tell you from the inside that there are a LOT of very wealthy Korean companies doing business in China. Almost forty percent of the students at the international school that I currently work at are Korean and those kids do not come from poverty.
This huge amount of money pouring into the PRC is helping fund the current economic boom, and China needs to keep it that way. Obviously a thermonuclear war in a country that has so much investment in China is not in their best economic interests. So they will do nothing to help empower the North in a horrible to "reclaim" the South.
All of this Korean money is flowing into China because, quite frankly, there is not much else for them to develop in their own country. However, should the North collapse a massive humanitarian and economic undertaking would ensue. The North would need to be developed in a bad, bad way which would trigger require a flow of capital and efforts from companies like Samsung and Dae Woo, which are currently doing business in China. Given the current economic climate, it is likely that any of those companies would need to contract elsewhere in order to set up shop in North Korea, which would probably mean a lot of them would move out of China. China can not let this happen, certainly not while their economy continues to benefit from Korean involvment in the country.
Also, should the North fall and the Peninsula become unified, there is the pesky question of the ethnic Koreans living in the Chinese Northeast. A huge swell in Korean nationalism would no doubt catalyze the notion that those people should join their reunified homeland. Jilin and Liaoning provinces both have sizeable Korean populations, and should they ever get vocal about their land leaving China, then the PRC has large problems on its hand. They already have enough seperatist regions to deal with, why add another one? Especially one that would have Japan and America's sympathy? Jilin in particular has a great deal of national resources, notably iron, coal, and oil, which an industrializing nation like China certainly needs and could not afford to jeopordize.
China is in a clear case of "damned if we do" with very little "damned if we don't". This can only lead us to one conclusion, we're going to get more of the same, so you can crawl out of the bomb shelter.
Until next time,
G
Thursday, January 22, 2009
The Transmuter of Nations
Date: November 4, 2008
Prologue: One man claimed that he had the power to transform an entire nation. Many doubted him, but it turns out that maybe, just maybe, he had the power all along...
The Democratic Primary was never supposed to be in doubt. Hilary Clinton had the thing all locked up. With her massive amount of super-delegates, her apparently limitless war chest, and of course the wildly successful Clinton brand behind her, it appeared that she was a lock to not only be the Democratic candidate, but to be the nations first female President.
But things, do not always go as they seem. The eyes of the nation convened on Iowa on January 3rd, for the first stop on the Primary circuit, the Iowa Caucus. Clinton was wildly expected to win, but not by the landslides that she was polling in other states such as New Hampshire. However, she decided to break with her husbands course and try to win the Caucus.
Perhaps, she felt unbeatable, perhaps she just did not think it through. Either way, it was a decision that would haunt her as the unthinkable happened. Hilary Clinton lost. Not only did she lose, but she finished an embarrassing third place, finishing behind 2004 running-mate John Edwards, and a relative newcomer to national politics, Barack Obama.
Obama stunned everyone by winning in Iowa. Sure he was young, attractive, and an amazing speaker, but this was a Clinton for God-sakes, and if there is one thing that they don't do, it's lose.
Obama set his sights to New Hampshire, he thought maybe if he could win that one that Clinton would be out of the race. Her inevitability would be gone, as she would be associated with the stink of failure. However, one can never count out a Clinton, as Hikary proceeded to through her all into the next contest, New Hampshire, one that she would rally back and win.
And so began a six month long journey. Obama would win a state, Clinton would win a state, lather, rinse repeat. While Clinton would tend to win the larger states, such as California, and New York, she would only win by a small margin, and sometimes, not even win the delegate count. Obama, on the other hand, would win smaller states, but by a larger margin. After Super Tuesday, Obama was ahead on the delegate count, which is what ultimately decided the winner.
Things got bleaker for Clinton as, Obama won 10, albeit small states in a row in the middle of February. He ended up ahead of Clinton by around 100 delegates, a lead that he would never give up. Still though, to her credit, Clinton kept fighting. She would never quite get to the point where she would be fully eliminated from contention.
However, that massive war chest of hers, started to run out, well sort of. See there are rules for how much that a person can donate, and there are rules for how much a candidate can spend on either a primary or the general election. Clinton, was given millions, upon millions of dollars by some very wealthy people. She had to divide this money between the primary battles, and the general election, and well, she had spent all that she could for the primary, leaving her both too poor to compete in the primaries, and with an abundance of wealth for the general election.
Despite all of this Clinton fought on, when Obama had a chance to put the nail in the coffin with the Texas and Ohio primary, Clinton won. When the oppourtunity presended itself in Pennsylvania, Clinton fought back. However, as the winter turned to spring, it appeared that hope was blooming, and that there was nothing to stop Obama.
Finally, 6 months to the day after the first ballot was cast in Iowa, the last primaries in Montana and South Dakota came, and the numbers were finally beyond denying. Obama won the nomination, and the right to face John McCain for the President of hte United States.
It is probably a good time to mention something that I haven't mentioned, but you all no doubt know. Barack Obama is a black man. He is the first black man to be a serious contender for President of the United States. That's right, finally a nation that was founded by slave-holders looked to have a president whose father could not eat at every restaurant, or ride where he wanted to on a bus, or even marry his white wife in every state of the union.
Of course, Obama's feel good story was not over then. There still stood the Republican Maverick, the man who many feel was robbed in 2000, John McCain. McCain had easily won the Republican Primary, and had things all wrapped up in February.
But Obama seemed unstoppable. His poll numbers where huge, and no attacks seemed to work. The Republicans called him inexperienced and unpresidential, so he went on a Presidential-style trip abroad, and received record number of crowds. They tried to paint him as an empty headed celebrity, but then they chose Sarah Palin as their running mate, a woman who makes Paris Hilton look like Kofi Annan.
Finally, on November 4, the night of the election, Barack Obama was declared the President of hte United States of America. He won the electoral college 365-173, an absolute landslide.
So what is he going to do now? Clearly, he did not just want to win the election, but he wanted to do something. He constantly through the word "Change" around implying that he was going to somehow alter the course of the United States, and bring it back to its former glory. The main targets are Guantanimo Bay, the economy, the war in Iraq, and America's standing abroad. This is a really tall order for anyone, but many feel if there is anyone out there who can do it, it is Mr. Obama.
Wait four years, and we shall see if anything will really change.
Epilogue: Obama was officially innagurated on January 20, 2009. In his first few days of office, he has already begun looking at ways to phase out American involvment from Iraq, he has taken steps to close Guantanimo Bay, and appears to be making a play for real bipartisanship. It appears, my friends, that change is not coming, it is here.
Until next time,
G
Achieved Year in Review Posts:
The Fall of the Prophet - January 6th
The Rise of the Ice Queen -January 7th
An Unlikely Fruition - January 7th
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror - January 9th
A Most Sincere Inquiry - January 10th
The Golden League - January 14th
The Fall from Grace - January 16th
The Eighth Layer of Injustice - January 16th
The Transmuter of Nations - January 22nd
Prologue: One man claimed that he had the power to transform an entire nation. Many doubted him, but it turns out that maybe, just maybe, he had the power all along...
The Democratic Primary was never supposed to be in doubt. Hilary Clinton had the thing all locked up. With her massive amount of super-delegates, her apparently limitless war chest, and of course the wildly successful Clinton brand behind her, it appeared that she was a lock to not only be the Democratic candidate, but to be the nations first female President.
But things, do not always go as they seem. The eyes of the nation convened on Iowa on January 3rd, for the first stop on the Primary circuit, the Iowa Caucus. Clinton was wildly expected to win, but not by the landslides that she was polling in other states such as New Hampshire. However, she decided to break with her husbands course and try to win the Caucus.
Perhaps, she felt unbeatable, perhaps she just did not think it through. Either way, it was a decision that would haunt her as the unthinkable happened. Hilary Clinton lost. Not only did she lose, but she finished an embarrassing third place, finishing behind 2004 running-mate John Edwards, and a relative newcomer to national politics, Barack Obama.
Obama stunned everyone by winning in Iowa. Sure he was young, attractive, and an amazing speaker, but this was a Clinton for God-sakes, and if there is one thing that they don't do, it's lose.
Obama set his sights to New Hampshire, he thought maybe if he could win that one that Clinton would be out of the race. Her inevitability would be gone, as she would be associated with the stink of failure. However, one can never count out a Clinton, as Hikary proceeded to through her all into the next contest, New Hampshire, one that she would rally back and win.
And so began a six month long journey. Obama would win a state, Clinton would win a state, lather, rinse repeat. While Clinton would tend to win the larger states, such as California, and New York, she would only win by a small margin, and sometimes, not even win the delegate count. Obama, on the other hand, would win smaller states, but by a larger margin. After Super Tuesday, Obama was ahead on the delegate count, which is what ultimately decided the winner.
Things got bleaker for Clinton as, Obama won 10, albeit small states in a row in the middle of February. He ended up ahead of Clinton by around 100 delegates, a lead that he would never give up. Still though, to her credit, Clinton kept fighting. She would never quite get to the point where she would be fully eliminated from contention.
However, that massive war chest of hers, started to run out, well sort of. See there are rules for how much that a person can donate, and there are rules for how much a candidate can spend on either a primary or the general election. Clinton, was given millions, upon millions of dollars by some very wealthy people. She had to divide this money between the primary battles, and the general election, and well, she had spent all that she could for the primary, leaving her both too poor to compete in the primaries, and with an abundance of wealth for the general election.
Despite all of this Clinton fought on, when Obama had a chance to put the nail in the coffin with the Texas and Ohio primary, Clinton won. When the oppourtunity presended itself in Pennsylvania, Clinton fought back. However, as the winter turned to spring, it appeared that hope was blooming, and that there was nothing to stop Obama.
Finally, 6 months to the day after the first ballot was cast in Iowa, the last primaries in Montana and South Dakota came, and the numbers were finally beyond denying. Obama won the nomination, and the right to face John McCain for the President of hte United States.
It is probably a good time to mention something that I haven't mentioned, but you all no doubt know. Barack Obama is a black man. He is the first black man to be a serious contender for President of the United States. That's right, finally a nation that was founded by slave-holders looked to have a president whose father could not eat at every restaurant, or ride where he wanted to on a bus, or even marry his white wife in every state of the union.
Of course, Obama's feel good story was not over then. There still stood the Republican Maverick, the man who many feel was robbed in 2000, John McCain. McCain had easily won the Republican Primary, and had things all wrapped up in February.
But Obama seemed unstoppable. His poll numbers where huge, and no attacks seemed to work. The Republicans called him inexperienced and unpresidential, so he went on a Presidential-style trip abroad, and received record number of crowds. They tried to paint him as an empty headed celebrity, but then they chose Sarah Palin as their running mate, a woman who makes Paris Hilton look like Kofi Annan.
Finally, on November 4, the night of the election, Barack Obama was declared the President of hte United States of America. He won the electoral college 365-173, an absolute landslide.
So what is he going to do now? Clearly, he did not just want to win the election, but he wanted to do something. He constantly through the word "Change" around implying that he was going to somehow alter the course of the United States, and bring it back to its former glory. The main targets are Guantanimo Bay, the economy, the war in Iraq, and America's standing abroad. This is a really tall order for anyone, but many feel if there is anyone out there who can do it, it is Mr. Obama.
Wait four years, and we shall see if anything will really change.
Epilogue: Obama was officially innagurated on January 20, 2009. In his first few days of office, he has already begun looking at ways to phase out American involvment from Iraq, he has taken steps to close Guantanimo Bay, and appears to be making a play for real bipartisanship. It appears, my friends, that change is not coming, it is here.
Until next time,
G
Achieved Year in Review Posts:
The Fall of the Prophet - January 6th
The Rise of the Ice Queen -January 7th
An Unlikely Fruition - January 7th
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror - January 9th
A Most Sincere Inquiry - January 10th
The Golden League - January 14th
The Fall from Grace - January 16th
The Eighth Layer of Injustice - January 16th
The Transmuter of Nations - January 22nd
Friday, January 09, 2009
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror
Prologue: What happens when the people speak, but don't really say anything?
It leaves the powers that be in a very odd situation, as they tend to lose control. With such a gap in power, it appeared that a three-headed creature would seize the reigns, however one man had to appeal to a higher power to delay the onslaught and hold on.
After over two-years of a reasonably successful Minority Government, Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, began to make claims that Parliament had become dysfunctional, and an election was needed. On September 7, Stephen Harper went to Governor General Michelle Jean, and requested the dissolution of parliament. The Governor General complied, and we had an election on October 14.
To the surprise of nobody, the Conservatives won yet again, with another Minority Government. However, this time they had a larger seat total, garnering 143 seats. This compared to the 77 earned by the Liberals, 49 by the Bloc Quebecois, and 37 to the NDP (along with 2 Independents).
(Editorial Tangent: Now before we continue, we need to examine one of the central principals of a Parliamentary Democracy. The electorate (in theory) never vote for the Prime Minister, or even the political party. Technically you vote for the representative of your constituency, and it is up to those representatives (MPs) to chose the leader of their group. It just happens in practice that almost every politician is affiliated with a party, and each party has a leader who is understood to become Prime Minister in the event of a victory for their party.)
Before Parliament had even sat, the Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty delivered his fiscal update, which is essentially a mini-budget. This update was quickly, and vehemently panned by the three opposition parties. With three main points of contention: a lack of an economic stimulus plan to prevent recession, removal of civil servants right to strike, and the removal of subsidies for political parties. The last being the most crucial, as it would essentially bankrupt all three opposition parties at once.
(Editorial Tangent #2: While it is by no means required, it is expected that the political parties cooperate and compromise in the event of a Minority Government. After all, if the will of the populace is divided, then surely the actions of the government are expected to reflect this.)
This sent all three parties, and much of the population, into an incendiary rage. However, the only way to stop this was to table a Non-Confidence motion, and therefore trigger yet another election. Since this was something that nobody wanted, especially the Liberals who had delivered perhaps their poorest electoral showing in history.
As a result, something daring was proposed, a change in government without an election.
After a series of talks, it was announced that the Liberals and NDP would form a coalition, lasting until June 30, 2011. They would place the Liberal leader as Prime Minister, and create a cabinet of 23 other ministers, including 6 NDPs. However, with a quick amount of math you can notice that the 114 seats that the two parties have combined is not enough, so they needed a little bit more support. They then formed an agreement with the Bloc Quebecois to support the coalition until June 30, 2010.
This prompted Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to launch a full scale media blitz, calling the coalition ruthlessly undemocratic, even addressing the nation on prime time. There were two central arguments against the coalition: the widely unpopular Stephane Dion would be Prime Minster, and that it required the support of the Bloc Quebecois.
This sparked a fervour and debate across the country as rallies were held on both sides of the argument. Something that has not been seen in Canada since the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords over a decade and a half ago.
Stephen Harper made an unprecedented request to the Governor General to prorogue parliament. She complied, and delayed the Parliament to January 26th (From December 8th) in a wildly debated move. Normally prorogation is reserved for genuine national emergencies, such as war or natural disasters, and has never been used for political emergencies.
In a snap move, Stephane Dion then announced that he would step down as Liberal (and coalition) leader, and Michael Ignatieff was quickly selected as his replacement. Ignatieff has softened talks of a coalition, but by no means has stated that he will comply with the Conservatives.
However, we will have to wait until the 26th to find out what will happen, and that, my friends, is something that we will be discussing in our 2009 year in review.
Epilogue: While the government has not been seated, the Canadian economy continues to suffer, the 100th Canadian solider died in Afghanistan, one of the worst winters in memory started to take place, and nothing is being done to remedy either of those situations.
Somehow claims by the government of having the best interest of the people in mind are not being debated.
Until next time,
G
Achieved Year in Review Posts:
The Fall of the Prophet - January 6th
The Rise of the Ice Queen -January 7th
An Unlikely Fruition - January 7th
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror - January 9th
A Most Sincere Inquiry - January 10th
The Golden League - January 14th
The Fall from Grace - January 16th
The Eighth Layer of Injustice - January 16th
The Transmuter of Nations - January 22nd
It leaves the powers that be in a very odd situation, as they tend to lose control. With such a gap in power, it appeared that a three-headed creature would seize the reigns, however one man had to appeal to a higher power to delay the onslaught and hold on.
After over two-years of a reasonably successful Minority Government, Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, began to make claims that Parliament had become dysfunctional, and an election was needed. On September 7, Stephen Harper went to Governor General Michelle Jean, and requested the dissolution of parliament. The Governor General complied, and we had an election on October 14.
To the surprise of nobody, the Conservatives won yet again, with another Minority Government. However, this time they had a larger seat total, garnering 143 seats. This compared to the 77 earned by the Liberals, 49 by the Bloc Quebecois, and 37 to the NDP (along with 2 Independents).
(Editorial Tangent: Now before we continue, we need to examine one of the central principals of a Parliamentary Democracy. The electorate (in theory) never vote for the Prime Minister, or even the political party. Technically you vote for the representative of your constituency, and it is up to those representatives (MPs) to chose the leader of their group. It just happens in practice that almost every politician is affiliated with a party, and each party has a leader who is understood to become Prime Minister in the event of a victory for their party.)
Before Parliament had even sat, the Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty delivered his fiscal update, which is essentially a mini-budget. This update was quickly, and vehemently panned by the three opposition parties. With three main points of contention: a lack of an economic stimulus plan to prevent recession, removal of civil servants right to strike, and the removal of subsidies for political parties. The last being the most crucial, as it would essentially bankrupt all three opposition parties at once.
(Editorial Tangent #2: While it is by no means required, it is expected that the political parties cooperate and compromise in the event of a Minority Government. After all, if the will of the populace is divided, then surely the actions of the government are expected to reflect this.)
This sent all three parties, and much of the population, into an incendiary rage. However, the only way to stop this was to table a Non-Confidence motion, and therefore trigger yet another election. Since this was something that nobody wanted, especially the Liberals who had delivered perhaps their poorest electoral showing in history.
As a result, something daring was proposed, a change in government without an election.
After a series of talks, it was announced that the Liberals and NDP would form a coalition, lasting until June 30, 2011. They would place the Liberal leader as Prime Minister, and create a cabinet of 23 other ministers, including 6 NDPs. However, with a quick amount of math you can notice that the 114 seats that the two parties have combined is not enough, so they needed a little bit more support. They then formed an agreement with the Bloc Quebecois to support the coalition until June 30, 2010.
This prompted Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to launch a full scale media blitz, calling the coalition ruthlessly undemocratic, even addressing the nation on prime time. There were two central arguments against the coalition: the widely unpopular Stephane Dion would be Prime Minster, and that it required the support of the Bloc Quebecois.
This sparked a fervour and debate across the country as rallies were held on both sides of the argument. Something that has not been seen in Canada since the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords over a decade and a half ago.
Stephen Harper made an unprecedented request to the Governor General to prorogue parliament. She complied, and delayed the Parliament to January 26th (From December 8th) in a wildly debated move. Normally prorogation is reserved for genuine national emergencies, such as war or natural disasters, and has never been used for political emergencies.
In a snap move, Stephane Dion then announced that he would step down as Liberal (and coalition) leader, and Michael Ignatieff was quickly selected as his replacement. Ignatieff has softened talks of a coalition, but by no means has stated that he will comply with the Conservatives.
However, we will have to wait until the 26th to find out what will happen, and that, my friends, is something that we will be discussing in our 2009 year in review.
Epilogue: While the government has not been seated, the Canadian economy continues to suffer, the 100th Canadian solider died in Afghanistan, one of the worst winters in memory started to take place, and nothing is being done to remedy either of those situations.
Somehow claims by the government of having the best interest of the people in mind are not being debated.
Until next time,
G
Achieved Year in Review Posts:
The Fall of the Prophet - January 6th
The Rise of the Ice Queen -January 7th
An Unlikely Fruition - January 7th
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror - January 9th
A Most Sincere Inquiry - January 10th
The Golden League - January 14th
The Fall from Grace - January 16th
The Eighth Layer of Injustice - January 16th
The Transmuter of Nations - January 22nd
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The Rise of the Ice Queen
Date: August 28, 2008
Prologue: Two men engage in a year long battle. One man, who continues to play by his own rules, gains momentum, but realizes that he is unable to achieve victory on his own. He summons a previously unknown maiden from the land of ice and snow, to aid him in his mission. Quickly though, this Ice Queen begins to overshadow the very man that she was supposed to assist, which puts things on an irreversible path.
August seems like a lifetime ago by now, doesn't it? In reality though it has only been a little over 4 months since John McCain introduced the world to Sarah Palin, and the course of the campaign changed in a matter of minutes.
Back in August, John McCain was taking a chip out of Obama's huge lead, with the extremely successful "World's Biggest Celebrity" advertisements. Obama had just made a safe albeit boring running mate selection of Joe Biden, which hardly set the world on fire. However, his convention came pretty close to (figuratively) setting things ablaze. It had the emotion of Hilary Clinton's speech, and the stunning visualization of Obama addressing 80, 000 people on a Denver night.
McCain knew that he needed to do something to both upstage Obama's running mate, and get peopel to stop talking about his acceptance speech. John McCain, ever the maverick, did not take such likely candidates as Pawlenty, Romney, or Liberman, instead he went with a much wilder pick that certain got people talking. He chose Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin.
At first, this was a huge success. People wondered who this young, unheralded, and attractive woman was. They saw her as a an excellent "outsider" both as a woman in a man's world, and as someone who has little connection in Washington. Also, people who had originally supported Hilary Clinton, seemed to flock towards Sarah Palin.
She became a huge star in no time.
And that was the biggest problem.
Everyone wanted to know more about this mysterious Palin. We had gotten two years to get to know Obama on a national stage, but had no idea who this woman was. Quickly, John McCain became an afterthought, as people began to flock towards his running mate.
Palin ralies became huge events, drawing massive crowds, while McCain's ralies had far smaller numbers.
And that was the next biggest problem.
Palin became in control of the campaign. McCain had pledged long and hard to run an honourable campaign, however, Palin made no such promises. She began to accuse Obama of "Pallin' around with terrorists", and an intense amount of hatred and blatant racism would begin to emerge at her rallies, as she began to fan the flames of hatred. Certainly not an honourable campaign that John McCain wanted.
Since Palin became an overnight sensation, the media wanted to get a hold of her for an interview.
And that was the next, next biggest problem.
She really had no idea how to handle any sort of questions. She was either completely unprepared or completely ignorant, or perhaps both. Take a look at the most infamous blunder of hers from an interview with Katie Couric.
Amazing eh?
Now that certainly is "gotcha" journalism, with that tricky Couric asking a hard question.
Other proud moments for Mrs. Palin, include her not understanding the Bush Doctrine, getting confused as to the role of the Vice President, and thinking that Africa is a country. Certainly something that someone who wants the second highest office in the land should know.
Also, a new sueprstar in politics, especially one with such gaping holes in her knowledge set, became excellent fodder for satire. Including this, perhaps the most memorable moment of the 2008 campaign.
After eight years, jokes at George W. Bush's expense were in need of freshening up, and thankfully, the Republicans came through yet again for us. Not only did 2008 give us a richer target for satire, it gave us a more polarizing character than we have seen in a very long time. Due to her age, and relative freshness on the national stage, this is one that will not be going away soon.
Epilogue: In the end, Palin became an absolute cancer to the McCain campaign. Five days before the election, almost 60% of Americans thought that she was unprepared for the job of Vice President (to say nothing about President), and over 40% had an unfavourable opinion of her.
In case you haven't heard, McCain-Palin were absolutely crushed in the election.
Sarah Palin is considered an early contender for the Republican nomination in 2012.
Until next time,
G
Achieved Year in Review Posts:
The Fall of the Prophet - January 6th
The Rise of the Ice Queen -January 7th
An Unlikely Fruition - January 7th
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror - January 9th
A Most Sincere Inquiry - January 10th
The Golden League - January 14th
The Fall from Grace - January 16th
The Eighth Layer of Injustice - January 16th
The Transmuter of Nations - January 22nd
Prologue: Two men engage in a year long battle. One man, who continues to play by his own rules, gains momentum, but realizes that he is unable to achieve victory on his own. He summons a previously unknown maiden from the land of ice and snow, to aid him in his mission. Quickly though, this Ice Queen begins to overshadow the very man that she was supposed to assist, which puts things on an irreversible path.
August seems like a lifetime ago by now, doesn't it? In reality though it has only been a little over 4 months since John McCain introduced the world to Sarah Palin, and the course of the campaign changed in a matter of minutes.
Back in August, John McCain was taking a chip out of Obama's huge lead, with the extremely successful "World's Biggest Celebrity" advertisements. Obama had just made a safe albeit boring running mate selection of Joe Biden, which hardly set the world on fire. However, his convention came pretty close to (figuratively) setting things ablaze. It had the emotion of Hilary Clinton's speech, and the stunning visualization of Obama addressing 80, 000 people on a Denver night.
McCain knew that he needed to do something to both upstage Obama's running mate, and get peopel to stop talking about his acceptance speech. John McCain, ever the maverick, did not take such likely candidates as Pawlenty, Romney, or Liberman, instead he went with a much wilder pick that certain got people talking. He chose Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin.
At first, this was a huge success. People wondered who this young, unheralded, and attractive woman was. They saw her as a an excellent "outsider" both as a woman in a man's world, and as someone who has little connection in Washington. Also, people who had originally supported Hilary Clinton, seemed to flock towards Sarah Palin.
She became a huge star in no time.
And that was the biggest problem.
Everyone wanted to know more about this mysterious Palin. We had gotten two years to get to know Obama on a national stage, but had no idea who this woman was. Quickly, John McCain became an afterthought, as people began to flock towards his running mate.
Palin ralies became huge events, drawing massive crowds, while McCain's ralies had far smaller numbers.
And that was the next biggest problem.
Palin became in control of the campaign. McCain had pledged long and hard to run an honourable campaign, however, Palin made no such promises. She began to accuse Obama of "Pallin' around with terrorists", and an intense amount of hatred and blatant racism would begin to emerge at her rallies, as she began to fan the flames of hatred. Certainly not an honourable campaign that John McCain wanted.
Since Palin became an overnight sensation, the media wanted to get a hold of her for an interview.
And that was the next, next biggest problem.
She really had no idea how to handle any sort of questions. She was either completely unprepared or completely ignorant, or perhaps both. Take a look at the most infamous blunder of hers from an interview with Katie Couric.
Amazing eh?
Now that certainly is "gotcha" journalism, with that tricky Couric asking a hard question.
Other proud moments for Mrs. Palin, include her not understanding the Bush Doctrine, getting confused as to the role of the Vice President, and thinking that Africa is a country. Certainly something that someone who wants the second highest office in the land should know.
Also, a new sueprstar in politics, especially one with such gaping holes in her knowledge set, became excellent fodder for satire. Including this, perhaps the most memorable moment of the 2008 campaign.
After eight years, jokes at George W. Bush's expense were in need of freshening up, and thankfully, the Republicans came through yet again for us. Not only did 2008 give us a richer target for satire, it gave us a more polarizing character than we have seen in a very long time. Due to her age, and relative freshness on the national stage, this is one that will not be going away soon.
Epilogue: In the end, Palin became an absolute cancer to the McCain campaign. Five days before the election, almost 60% of Americans thought that she was unprepared for the job of Vice President (to say nothing about President), and over 40% had an unfavourable opinion of her.
In case you haven't heard, McCain-Palin were absolutely crushed in the election.
Sarah Palin is considered an early contender for the Republican nomination in 2012.
Until next time,
G
Achieved Year in Review Posts:
The Fall of the Prophet - January 6th
The Rise of the Ice Queen -January 7th
An Unlikely Fruition - January 7th
Attack of the Three-Headed Terror - January 9th
A Most Sincere Inquiry - January 10th
The Golden League - January 14th
The Fall from Grace - January 16th
The Eighth Layer of Injustice - January 16th
The Transmuter of Nations - January 22nd
Monday, November 17, 2008
Presidential Hangover
Pardon to any regular readers for the latest week long absence. Normally I have some reason, either professional or personal for any such sabbatical. However, this time it is something completely different.
I am hungover.
That's right, I over-indulged, and now I am paying the price. Only this time, I didn't overdo it on alcohol, I took in just too much information. Over the past several weeks (hell, months) I have been pretty consumed with the U.S. Presidential Election. Any information on Obama I would drink up, get delighted, and seek out more. I went too far.
In the past thirteen days since hope was reborn, I have been drained. All of my energy and enthusiasm went into one major event, and since then I've been a little bit lost, with nothing left to focus on. However, I've had a cold shower and a couple of Red Bulls, and I'm ready to talk about something else. Here are a few random things that I have observed in the past few weeks:
Rae vs. Ignatieff: Finally, some worthwhile political news from my own country! As sad as I was to see Dion resign (being only the second Liberal Party Leader in history to never serve as PM), I am rather hopeful for the future. There has been a lot of speculation and interesting announcements and moves, but the Liberal Leadership Convention, scheduled for this spring appears to be coming down to the two favourites from 2007, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff.
While these two competed a few years ago as favourites, they were shocked by the plucky Dion, who emerged as a compromise candidate. This time, however, things are a bit more interesting, as both men must realize that this is their last chance for the top spot in the party. I expect them both to come out swinging at one another.
Even more broadly, this represents a very important decision for the Liberals, who are in dire need of a change. Do they go for the more Left-Wing Bob Rae, or the more Right-Wing Ignatieff? Do they try to win voters back from the NDP and Greens, or try to take advantage of Canada getting more conservative (note: small c)? If they go for Rae, expect to see some jump to Harper's team, and if they take Ignatieff, I think that NDP might just end up with some more disaffected Liberals.
Pay attention to this one, because it should have a pretty profound effect on Canadian politics for the next few years.
The Hottest Free Agent in Town: Oddly in the NHL right now, the most sought after free agent is not a player, but rather a General Manager. Last week, the Anaheim Ducks and GM Brian Burke, parted ways, in a move that should fundamentally alter the NHL's landscape.
There has been a lot of talk about Burke going to Toronto, and it appears to be the most likely situation. However, there is reported interest from both Chicago and Ottawa, as well as Blackberry Billionaire, Jim Ballsille, who is still looking for his own NHL franchise.
Burke is considered one of the best GMs in the league, having build a solid team in Vancouver, and winning a Cup in Anaheim, so interest is high, especially in Toronto, who needs to turn things around quickly. However, there is an issue if MLSE will allow Burke (or anyone) the kind of control that they are looking for.
Classical Departure: In my obligatory wresting topic, it appears that TNA Wrestler, Christian Cage, may be headed back to the WWE. This comes almost three years to the day that he jumped to the Orlando-based company in a move that fundamentally altered the wrestling landscape. While this has not pushed TNA into direct competition with WWE, it served as a precursor for Kurt Angle and Booker T walking away from the WWE and joining TNA.
Also, in the mean time, Christian has improved in leaps and bounds. He has been one of TNAs top performers for the past three years, and shown t hat he genuinely belongs in the Main Event. If he returns to the WWE, expect him to have a secure place in the upper-midcard, and a very likely feud with either Chris Jericho or Edge.
Lastly if this does work for Cage, then we could expect to see other young wrestlers who are lost in the shuffle (including the recently released Kenny Dykstra and Elijah Burke) to head down south, hone their craft and come back for more money and a bigger limelight.
Lesnar Wins!!!: Speaking of wrestling, former WWE Champion, Brock Lesnar, shocked the world by defeating UFC Champion, Randy Couture to claim the title. I think that this goes a long way to legitimizing professional wrestlers as athletes.
A Few Trips Booked: Allow me to get personal for a moment, but I have booked a few trips for upcoming holidays. Over Christmas, I will be heading to southern Vietnam and Cambodia, while for Chinese New Year (early February) I will be going to Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Expect more stories of these to follow.
The Cabinet Fills Up: In the past week, speculation has been rampant about the upcoming cabinet. Apparently, Hilary Clinton has been offered the high-profile position of Secretary of State, but it remains to be seen if a) this is true, or b) she will accept the offer. If this is the case, then this goes a long way to Obama establishing a "Team of Rivals" as he has claimed interest in building.
George W. Bush talked a great deal about bridging partisan divides, but he ended up surrounding himself with exceptionally conservative people, showing that he was all talk (yes I know Colin Powell was the exception, but he didn't last both terms). Obama has already left Robert Gates on as Secretary of Defense, and he and Joe Biden haven't always seen eye-to-eye in the Senate. If he adds some more high profile Republicans, or other Democrats that he's had issues with, expect him to go much farther along that his predecessor into healing some old wounds.
Yes, I know it involved Obama, but only tangentially...forgive me...
Just in Case You Want More Election: Newsweek has an EXCELLENT seven part story about the election. It contains many behind-the-scenes looks at the campaign, going all the way back to the primaries. It is well worth the time.
Damn, I couldn't get through an Obama free post. Ah well, I suppose that admitting you have a problem is the first step towards recovery.
Until next time,
G
I am hungover.
That's right, I over-indulged, and now I am paying the price. Only this time, I didn't overdo it on alcohol, I took in just too much information. Over the past several weeks (hell, months) I have been pretty consumed with the U.S. Presidential Election. Any information on Obama I would drink up, get delighted, and seek out more. I went too far.
In the past thirteen days since hope was reborn, I have been drained. All of my energy and enthusiasm went into one major event, and since then I've been a little bit lost, with nothing left to focus on. However, I've had a cold shower and a couple of Red Bulls, and I'm ready to talk about something else. Here are a few random things that I have observed in the past few weeks:
Rae vs. Ignatieff: Finally, some worthwhile political news from my own country! As sad as I was to see Dion resign (being only the second Liberal Party Leader in history to never serve as PM), I am rather hopeful for the future. There has been a lot of speculation and interesting announcements and moves, but the Liberal Leadership Convention, scheduled for this spring appears to be coming down to the two favourites from 2007, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff.
While these two competed a few years ago as favourites, they were shocked by the plucky Dion, who emerged as a compromise candidate. This time, however, things are a bit more interesting, as both men must realize that this is their last chance for the top spot in the party. I expect them both to come out swinging at one another.
Even more broadly, this represents a very important decision for the Liberals, who are in dire need of a change. Do they go for the more Left-Wing Bob Rae, or the more Right-Wing Ignatieff? Do they try to win voters back from the NDP and Greens, or try to take advantage of Canada getting more conservative (note: small c)? If they go for Rae, expect to see some jump to Harper's team, and if they take Ignatieff, I think that NDP might just end up with some more disaffected Liberals.
Pay attention to this one, because it should have a pretty profound effect on Canadian politics for the next few years.
The Hottest Free Agent in Town: Oddly in the NHL right now, the most sought after free agent is not a player, but rather a General Manager. Last week, the Anaheim Ducks and GM Brian Burke, parted ways, in a move that should fundamentally alter the NHL's landscape.
There has been a lot of talk about Burke going to Toronto, and it appears to be the most likely situation. However, there is reported interest from both Chicago and Ottawa, as well as Blackberry Billionaire, Jim Ballsille, who is still looking for his own NHL franchise.
Burke is considered one of the best GMs in the league, having build a solid team in Vancouver, and winning a Cup in Anaheim, so interest is high, especially in Toronto, who needs to turn things around quickly. However, there is an issue if MLSE will allow Burke (or anyone) the kind of control that they are looking for.
Classical Departure: In my obligatory wresting topic, it appears that TNA Wrestler, Christian Cage, may be headed back to the WWE. This comes almost three years to the day that he jumped to the Orlando-based company in a move that fundamentally altered the wrestling landscape. While this has not pushed TNA into direct competition with WWE, it served as a precursor for Kurt Angle and Booker T walking away from the WWE and joining TNA.
Also, in the mean time, Christian has improved in leaps and bounds. He has been one of TNAs top performers for the past three years, and shown t hat he genuinely belongs in the Main Event. If he returns to the WWE, expect him to have a secure place in the upper-midcard, and a very likely feud with either Chris Jericho or Edge.
Lastly if this does work for Cage, then we could expect to see other young wrestlers who are lost in the shuffle (including the recently released Kenny Dykstra and Elijah Burke) to head down south, hone their craft and come back for more money and a bigger limelight.
Lesnar Wins!!!: Speaking of wrestling, former WWE Champion, Brock Lesnar, shocked the world by defeating UFC Champion, Randy Couture to claim the title. I think that this goes a long way to legitimizing professional wrestlers as athletes.
A Few Trips Booked: Allow me to get personal for a moment, but I have booked a few trips for upcoming holidays. Over Christmas, I will be heading to southern Vietnam and Cambodia, while for Chinese New Year (early February) I will be going to Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Expect more stories of these to follow.
The Cabinet Fills Up: In the past week, speculation has been rampant about the upcoming cabinet. Apparently, Hilary Clinton has been offered the high-profile position of Secretary of State, but it remains to be seen if a) this is true, or b) she will accept the offer. If this is the case, then this goes a long way to Obama establishing a "Team of Rivals" as he has claimed interest in building.
George W. Bush talked a great deal about bridging partisan divides, but he ended up surrounding himself with exceptionally conservative people, showing that he was all talk (yes I know Colin Powell was the exception, but he didn't last both terms). Obama has already left Robert Gates on as Secretary of Defense, and he and Joe Biden haven't always seen eye-to-eye in the Senate. If he adds some more high profile Republicans, or other Democrats that he's had issues with, expect him to go much farther along that his predecessor into healing some old wounds.
Yes, I know it involved Obama, but only tangentially...forgive me...
Just in Case You Want More Election: Newsweek has an EXCELLENT seven part story about the election. It contains many behind-the-scenes looks at the campaign, going all the way back to the primaries. It is well worth the time.
Damn, I couldn't get through an Obama free post. Ah well, I suppose that admitting you have a problem is the first step towards recovery.
Until next time,
G
Friday, November 07, 2008
Everything has Changed
All week, scratch that, all year, I've been ready to write an article outlining my sheer overjoy at an Obama Presidency. Now, since it happened a few short days ago, I have been at a loss. I struggle to find the time or the necessary words to express the sheer magnitude of emotions that I have been feeling since that fateful November night.Obviously as a long-time Obama supporter and believer in his inevitable victory (look through my archived posts if you don't believe me), I am ecstatic, hopeful, and vindicated. However, that is not going to be the goal of this post, since that would just be a series of expletives, videos posted and "I told you so's", instead I am going to look at a few major ways that everything changed this week.
No matter what you think of Obama, you have to admit that this is a special, and magical moment, by a pretty special and magical individual. He has long been campaigning on "Change" and even if he does absolutely nothing or is (somehow) a worse President than George W. Bush, he has already brought a great deal of change.
The Race Card: Let's start with the elephant in the room. Barrack Obama is (half) black. Kind of hard not to see that one. Now he has never really played the race card, but the Clintons and McCain/Palin have been subtly playing on racial fears as a method of opposition. Once upon a time (i.e. last week), there were all sorts of talk about America being "ready" for a black President, or concerns that Obama was over polling due to the Bradley Effect.
Yet on November 4th, 2008, all that proved to be for naught. America, once considered to be the most racists of the Industrialized Nations has produced a symbol for hope and unity. Sure, there are still lots of racists in the United States, both whites and minorities, both Southerners and Northerners, but the rest of the world has to start to look at their own racial politics now. All of a sudden people in Canada, Britain, France, Australia, and every other Western Democracy have to stop saying that the United States is so racist, and need to ask themselves if they are ready for a leader with a different skin colour.
The End of Inevitability: While it seems like ancient history already, one cannot overstate the impossible task he faced going up against Hilary Clinton in the primaries. Everyone was so used to saying "President Clinton" once more, and it seemed like a lock that she would win, en route to crushing the Republicans, and the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton circle would be complete. Things, however, did not work out that way. Obama shocked the world with a victory in Iowa, en route to a series of victories in the longest, and most engaging Primary campaign that the United States has ever seen.
Perhaps more shocking, was the thought that only a few years before, the phrase "Permanent Republican Majority" was tossed around frequently. It was thought the Republicans had build up such a solid amount of support in the south by pushing hot button issues like gay marriage and abortion, that they were unbeatable, and would remain so for an indefinite amount of time.
The Re-drawing of the Map: Connected to the above point, is the fact that the US Electoral Map is vastly different than it has been for years. After Nixon created the "Solid South" in 1968, the Democrats were able to consistently win the North East, and the West Coast. However, the electoral count was never enough to push them over.
As a result, it seemed like the only way the the Democrats could win, would be by choosing a leader from the South in order to flip one of the previous Republican states. It should come as no coincidence that the only Democrats to have won an election since Kennedy were from Southern States (Johnson was from Texas, Carter from Georgia, and Clinton from Arkansas) while the Democratic Candidates to not have won an election, McGovern, Dukakis, and Kerry, were from the North. The only exception is Al Gore, being from Tennessee, but I will leave it to you to decide if he won or lost that election.
So now all of a sudden we have Obama being from Hawaii and/or Chicago, who was able to win big in traditional Republican "Bible Belt" states such as Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, and even one Electoral Vote out of Nebraska. This is a huge shift in the way that politics have focused so much on "Swing States" like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Obama could have lost those three states that were so key in 2000 and 2004, but still won the election. Something completely unthinkable for a Democrat to have done even a year ago.
The success of this has to be credited to Howard Dean and his 50 State Strategy. He was laughed at for suggesting that the Democrats run ads in typical Republican strongholds, in order for them to spread their wealth and attention, however in the end it worked. This can lead to a radical change in the way that US politics are done, and an electoral map that is far more fluid from term to term than we have seen in a very long time.
Back to the Drawing Board: Again, tied into "The End of Inevitability" is the long road that that the Republican party has in front of it. They were simply embarrassed by the results, and need to make some difficult decisions.
We have already seen the McCain camp come out and blame much of the loss on Sarah Palin, and I assume that we will see Palin's people do much of the same in the coming weeks. This presents a very crucial decision for the Republicans to make. Do they go with a more moderate, ideological based side represented by McCain, and championed by other members like Jindal and Romney? Or do they go with the religious right, represented by Palin, and includes Huckabee? Or do they go back to the drawing board?
This is hardly the big tent party that Regan built, or the champions of the "Common Sense Revolution" lead by Newt Gingrich and friends. They need to find their way, fast, or they could be in a lot of trouble.
While I am a huge bleeding heart liberal, I know that the US needs the Republicans to be a strong party once more. Democracy works best when you have more than one viable option, so that they can push one another to offer more to the voters.
Bottom Up: Due to all of the hype that Obama has been getting in the past few months, it is easy to miss the fact that this campaign was a grassroots movement. Whether it was out of choice, or out of sheer necessity, going up against the Clinton machine, it worked. With the last several Presidents being Washington insiders, with a great deal of support from the party machines, it is interesting to see a campaign done by the people, for the people work.
Obama raised more money than any other political candidate in history, and he did so mostly because of his contact with ordinary people. He had a plethora of small donors give a little, so he could always lean on them more later. This is a stark contrast to the small amounts of maxed out big donors that had been relied upon in the past.
Digital Democracy: There are people who voted in this election who could conceivably not remember a time when the internet was not a part of their lives. While it has been used as a campaign tool before, this marks the first time it was such a central part of a successful campaign.
This reason is two fold. For starters, all of the politicians to have served since 1996 (ish) have been older, and in general, the internet is the domain of younger people. The other, more important reason, is that this is the first Web 2.0 election. Since 2005, the use of blogs has boomed, YouTube started to broadcast, Google cemented its status as a verb, Digg and Delicious brought stories to you, Wikipedia changed the definition of truth, and Facebook has become a household name. The internet is a very different place than it was during the US election, and the Obama campaign was quick to make use of it. They communicated frequently with their supporters on Facebook, dominated Digg, and make any of his speeches easily accessible on their YouTube Channel.
The internet is clearly here to stay, and politicians can no longer ignore its power in the democratic process.
Enthusiasm: Regular followers of this blog will know that I am currently teaching in China, and due to the time difference, the election results were coming in at the same time that the school day started. What I saw over the course of the day simply amazed me.
Throughout the morning, I had students come up to me as we would share our latest electoral counts, and when I walked through the halls all that I could hear was "Obama" in between heated discussions in Chinese or Korean. When the final call was made, just before lunch break, the energy in the school was simply breathtaking. I had students run up to me and give me a high five, and all sorts of them simply overjoyed with the results.
This is the change that has the most potential to make a lasting difference. Think about this, there were teenagers, notoriously the most apathetic of demographics, on the other side of the planet, living in a communist country no less, who became emotionally involved in the political process on the other side of the planet. From what I have read, this was not an isolated incident.
The enthusiasm that was generated as a result of this candidacy is something that hasn't been witnessed in my life time, and probably has not been witnessed since the 1960 US election. This has the real potential to inspire a generation of youthful activists the same way that Kennedy was able to do two generations ago. Once more, with the increase in communication and shrinking of the world, it has potential to be far more far reaching. If people in China were happy about how a democratic election turned out, who is to say that they can't look for one of their own some day soon?
While it is easy to get caught up in the excitement of Obama's victory, and expect an immediate end to the problems in Iraq and on Wall Street. We must remember though, those changes will take time to work out. However, in a lot of ways, the world we enter this week is a vastly different one than the world that started just a few short days ago. Change, my friends, is not coming, it is here.
Until next time,
G
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Electoral Map Preview
After months, and months of voting, it is finally upon us. After following this story for months, and month, I have put together a very AUDACIOUS electoral map preview. John McCain had best HOPE that I am wrong on this one, or he may be looking for a CHANGE of careers. It may be a bit to Obamistic, but allow me to explain the swing states.
In using the exceptionally cool Electoral Map generator at Real Clear Politics, the final numbers that I am predicting are:
Obama/Biden: 396
McCain/Palin: 142
Wasn't this race supposed to be close? Wasn't John McCain going to give hope an audacious battle to the top? Wasn't Sarah Palin supposed to energize the Republican base and discontented Clinton supporters enough to put more red states on the map?
As we stand on the brink of the most exciting election in generations, clearly none of these things happened. Obama is poised for an absolute landslide victory, and the United States is set to have yet another dramatic shifts in direction.
For starters, let me get something out of the way. John McCain will not win the election. It would take either on act of God or an act of fraud to get him into the win column. Obama is securely in the lead in all of the Kerry states from 2004, plus Iowa and New Mexico. This puts him at 264 electoral votes, when he needs 270 to win. Meaning he only needs either Virginia or Colorado to win the election, and he has enough of a lead in both states, to put them securely in the blue column. This of course says nothing for Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and a multitude of other states poised to switch colours today. The numbers simply do not lie at this point, and the McCain camp can not put enough red on the map to push him over 270, thinking anything else at this point is simply delusional.
Looking at the map that I generated, you will notice that I give Obama/Biden far more than the 270 needed. Worth noting, they take both Florida and Ohio, which are just for insurance at this point, and not quite so crucial as they have been in recent elections. Also, I switched Nevada and Colorado, given Obama's strong enough lead in both states.
Of real interest though are the traditional "Bible Belt" Midwest/Southern states of Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, and North Carolina all going Democrat. The polls in all of these states have been essentially statistical ties. However, the Obama camp has been very proactive with their "Get Out and Vote" campaigns, as has been demonstrated with the massive turnouts all over the United States for early voting. North Carolina and Georgia have shown absolute surges in African American voting, and for both racial and ideological reasons, those should massively favour Obama. At the end of the day, ballots in the box are more important than polling numbers. Indiana and Missouri are so close to Obama's homestate of Illinois that they should be flooded with Democrat volunteers who can help the state switch sides.
That ultimately leaves Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia as the other toss-up states. The mere fact that these states, all of which Bush carried by double digits in 2004, are competitive is a huge Obama victory. I think that McCain should carry both his homestate of Arizona, and the traditional Republican stronghold of West Virginia in races that should not be as close as they are, however that is where I see his luck running out. While McCain has almost a 4% lead in Montana, I think that Obama is going to take this one. Ron Paul, mega-right wing Libertarian is on the ballot in Montana, and should take about 5% of McCain's vote, and coupled with Obama's vastly superior ground game, he should be able to pull out an upset. North Dakota is very close, and polling data suggests a dead heat, I'm going to give this one to Obama, since he has the superior ground game, and in cases of a tie, one can never underestimate the enthusiasm of Obama's supporters, who are far more likely to go and vote than McCain's supporters at this point, people like to back a winner after all.
All of this adds up to 396, which you don't need to be a math expert to understand that is a bigger number than 270, and translates into three simple words. Yes, we did.
Until next time,
G
Post Script: If you are interested in a variety of different electoral previews taking different things into account check out the following sites:
McNutt Against the Music
411mania.com/politics
538
Karl Rove
Pollster
Real Clear Politics
Post-Post Script: Obligatory comment: If you are American be sure to vote. It's not often that the entire world wants to take part in the democratic process of a single day, so please go and cast your ballots.
Post-Post-Post Script: Feel like reliving/reeducating yourself? Check out This. Fucking. Election. You won't be disappointed.
In using the exceptionally cool Electoral Map generator at Real Clear Politics, the final numbers that I am predicting are:
Obama/Biden: 396
McCain/Palin: 142
Wasn't this race supposed to be close? Wasn't John McCain going to give hope an audacious battle to the top? Wasn't Sarah Palin supposed to energize the Republican base and discontented Clinton supporters enough to put more red states on the map?
As we stand on the brink of the most exciting election in generations, clearly none of these things happened. Obama is poised for an absolute landslide victory, and the United States is set to have yet another dramatic shifts in direction.
For starters, let me get something out of the way. John McCain will not win the election. It would take either on act of God or an act of fraud to get him into the win column. Obama is securely in the lead in all of the Kerry states from 2004, plus Iowa and New Mexico. This puts him at 264 electoral votes, when he needs 270 to win. Meaning he only needs either Virginia or Colorado to win the election, and he has enough of a lead in both states, to put them securely in the blue column. This of course says nothing for Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and a multitude of other states poised to switch colours today. The numbers simply do not lie at this point, and the McCain camp can not put enough red on the map to push him over 270, thinking anything else at this point is simply delusional.
Looking at the map that I generated, you will notice that I give Obama/Biden far more than the 270 needed. Worth noting, they take both Florida and Ohio, which are just for insurance at this point, and not quite so crucial as they have been in recent elections. Also, I switched Nevada and Colorado, given Obama's strong enough lead in both states.
Of real interest though are the traditional "Bible Belt" Midwest/Southern states of Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, and North Carolina all going Democrat. The polls in all of these states have been essentially statistical ties. However, the Obama camp has been very proactive with their "Get Out and Vote" campaigns, as has been demonstrated with the massive turnouts all over the United States for early voting. North Carolina and Georgia have shown absolute surges in African American voting, and for both racial and ideological reasons, those should massively favour Obama. At the end of the day, ballots in the box are more important than polling numbers. Indiana and Missouri are so close to Obama's homestate of Illinois that they should be flooded with Democrat volunteers who can help the state switch sides.
That ultimately leaves Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia as the other toss-up states. The mere fact that these states, all of which Bush carried by double digits in 2004, are competitive is a huge Obama victory. I think that McCain should carry both his homestate of Arizona, and the traditional Republican stronghold of West Virginia in races that should not be as close as they are, however that is where I see his luck running out. While McCain has almost a 4% lead in Montana, I think that Obama is going to take this one. Ron Paul, mega-right wing Libertarian is on the ballot in Montana, and should take about 5% of McCain's vote, and coupled with Obama's vastly superior ground game, he should be able to pull out an upset. North Dakota is very close, and polling data suggests a dead heat, I'm going to give this one to Obama, since he has the superior ground game, and in cases of a tie, one can never underestimate the enthusiasm of Obama's supporters, who are far more likely to go and vote than McCain's supporters at this point, people like to back a winner after all.
All of this adds up to 396, which you don't need to be a math expert to understand that is a bigger number than 270, and translates into three simple words. Yes, we did.
Until next time,
G
Post Script: If you are interested in a variety of different electoral previews taking different things into account check out the following sites:
McNutt Against the Music
411mania.com/politics
538
Karl Rove
Pollster
Real Clear Politics
Post-Post Script: Obligatory comment: If you are American be sure to vote. It's not often that the entire world wants to take part in the democratic process of a single day, so please go and cast your ballots.
Post-Post-Post Script: Feel like reliving/reeducating yourself? Check out This. Fucking. Election. You won't be disappointed.
Monday, November 03, 2008
On the Precipice of Hope
I don't think that I could be anymore excited.As I sit half a world away, my eyes are squarely fixed Eastward across the Pacific, to the United States. Over the last eight years, we have watched this country go from bad to worse, as each decision of the Bush Administration proved more disastrous than the last. Now finally, in 28 odd hours, things will start to change.
While the time difference and busy schedule are going to get in my way, I know that I will be following these results as close as I can, and as each state goes blue I know that my heart will skip a little bit. I am fully expecting to shed a tear when he passes the magic number of 270, and we can finally declare that the baby Bush years are behind us.
After years of feeling downtrodden and dejected by the state of the world, there is finally a chance for something new and exciting to come our way. I am excited to imagine that the world that we go to bed tomorrow will be a better one than the one which we woke up to. Really how long has it been since we've been able to say that?
Yes, it's audacious, but I'll be damned if it's not hopeful.
Watch - "One Day to Change the World"
Watch - "There's Nothing We Can't Do"
Until next time,
G
Monday, October 13, 2008
Dear Canada
Dear Canada,
Hi, how are you? Things are going great for me out here. Work is great, making lots of friends, and the weather is nice. I know that it’s been a while, and we haven’t talk much, what with me moving to China and all, but I was hoping that I could ask you a favour, since we go back twenty-five years and all. Could you please, please, do me a solid and vote against the Conservative Party of Canada? I know that the alternatives look bleak. The Liberals are disorganized, the Bloc is not a viable option, the NDPs are risky, and the Greens do not have enough national experience, but they are all better than the Conservatives right now.
I know that things haven’t been that bad in the past two years of a Harper government, but if they get voted in, especially with a majority, things will change. Think about all of the ways that we define our country, bilingual, peaceful, tolerant, and a world leader. Now, think about all of the ways that Harper and his cronies have opposed these.
Do you remember where the Conservative Party comes from? Why Preston Manning and his Reform gurus. A big part of their platform, and the platform of the Canadian Alliance that bridge the gap, was to oppose bilingualism and multiculturalism. Granted, when Harper merged the parties he removed that from the platform, but remember, the roots of Reform are still there.
Also, does anyone else remember the build up to the current Iraq war? While much of America was very gung-ho to support a war that has since turned unpopular, most Canadians opposed it from the beginning and were very thankful when the Liberal s refused to join Bush’s Crusade. Note that I said most, as Stephen Harper and current Cabinet Minister, Stockwell Day, co-wrote an article to the Wall Street Journal condemning the Canadian government for not joining the US in their cause. And then spoke to American TV saying that the majority of Canadians supported the war. Do you really want to have someone in power that will join a war based on lies for political purposes? Don't we admonish the Americans for the same thing?
Canada is one of five countries in the world to currently have full legalized gay marriages. Do you remember who opposed this? And do you remember who wanted to reopen the debate after it had already been passed in Parliament? I’ll give you a hint, it was one of the party leaders and it was not Dion, Layton, Duceppe, or May. Any guesses?
If that doesn’t give it away, it was the same leader who accused his rival of “Being in league with the Taliban” for opposing the Afghan mission. Kind of sounds like he was accusing him of “Pallin’ around with terrorists”, does it not?
Lastly, the Conservative government has arguably the worst environmental record of any developed nation. This was especially clear at the Bali Conference last year as Jim Baird was routinely named the “Fossil of the Day” for his opposition to international consensus on a very serious problem. Remember, we are the country that pioneered International Peace Keeping, set up the first MASH Unit, were a founding member of NATO and the G7, and gave far more help to the Space Race than we will ever get credit for. Do we really want a government in charge who will not take the lead on the most important challenge that our generation will face?
So please Canadians, I am begging you to vote for someone other than the Conservatives. I don’t care if it’s the Liberals, NDP, Bloc, Greens, Natural Law, anything to get rid of Harper as Prime Minister has to be considered a success. Please Canada, do me a solid and lets vote this guy out before it's too late, because if he gets a majority, it really will be too late.
Standing on Guard for Thee,
Glen
Hi, how are you? Things are going great for me out here. Work is great, making lots of friends, and the weather is nice. I know that it’s been a while, and we haven’t talk much, what with me moving to China and all, but I was hoping that I could ask you a favour, since we go back twenty-five years and all. Could you please, please, do me a solid and vote against the Conservative Party of Canada? I know that the alternatives look bleak. The Liberals are disorganized, the Bloc is not a viable option, the NDPs are risky, and the Greens do not have enough national experience, but they are all better than the Conservatives right now.
I know that things haven’t been that bad in the past two years of a Harper government, but if they get voted in, especially with a majority, things will change. Think about all of the ways that we define our country, bilingual, peaceful, tolerant, and a world leader. Now, think about all of the ways that Harper and his cronies have opposed these.
Do you remember where the Conservative Party comes from? Why Preston Manning and his Reform gurus. A big part of their platform, and the platform of the Canadian Alliance that bridge the gap, was to oppose bilingualism and multiculturalism. Granted, when Harper merged the parties he removed that from the platform, but remember, the roots of Reform are still there.
Also, does anyone else remember the build up to the current Iraq war? While much of America was very gung-ho to support a war that has since turned unpopular, most Canadians opposed it from the beginning and were very thankful when the Liberal s refused to join Bush’s Crusade. Note that I said most, as Stephen Harper and current Cabinet Minister, Stockwell Day, co-wrote an article to the Wall Street Journal condemning the Canadian government for not joining the US in their cause. And then spoke to American TV saying that the majority of Canadians supported the war. Do you really want to have someone in power that will join a war based on lies for political purposes? Don't we admonish the Americans for the same thing?
Canada is one of five countries in the world to currently have full legalized gay marriages. Do you remember who opposed this? And do you remember who wanted to reopen the debate after it had already been passed in Parliament? I’ll give you a hint, it was one of the party leaders and it was not Dion, Layton, Duceppe, or May. Any guesses?
If that doesn’t give it away, it was the same leader who accused his rival of “Being in league with the Taliban” for opposing the Afghan mission. Kind of sounds like he was accusing him of “Pallin’ around with terrorists”, does it not?
Lastly, the Conservative government has arguably the worst environmental record of any developed nation. This was especially clear at the Bali Conference last year as Jim Baird was routinely named the “Fossil of the Day” for his opposition to international consensus on a very serious problem. Remember, we are the country that pioneered International Peace Keeping, set up the first MASH Unit, were a founding member of NATO and the G7, and gave far more help to the Space Race than we will ever get credit for. Do we really want a government in charge who will not take the lead on the most important challenge that our generation will face?
So please Canadians, I am begging you to vote for someone other than the Conservatives. I don’t care if it’s the Liberals, NDP, Bloc, Greens, Natural Law, anything to get rid of Harper as Prime Minister has to be considered a success. Please Canada, do me a solid and lets vote this guy out before it's too late, because if he gets a majority, it really will be too late.
Standing on Guard for Thee,
Glen
Sunday, September 21, 2008
An Outsider's Perspective - Part V - The Conservatives
This look at each of the five major parties in Canada concludes today with a look at the current governing party.
The Conservative Party of Canada
Leader: Stephen Harper
Since: 2004
Leader's Riding: Calgary Southwest
Seats at Dissolution: 127
Major Issues: Social Conservatism, Tax Cuts, Shutting up their Cabinet
(DISCLAIMER: Before I get started once again, let me point out my obvious political views. I am not a fan of this party what so ever. Just as in my last post, I shall do my best to remain objective, and I apologize if I am not able to do so.)
Two weeks ago, everything was going to so well. What happened?
Immediately after Parliament was dissolved, things were looking great for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party. They were gaining big in the battleground ridings, and it looked like they may be able to get the first right-wing majority government in fifteen years. All that they had to do was run a campaign even half as efficiently as they did in 2006 and they would be able to pick up another 30 seats, and a majority government would be theirs.
But then puffins pooed, Ryan Sparrow spoke ill of a man who lost his son, jokes were made about cold cuts and drunk natives, the US Economy is on the verge of collapsing, and that damn Elizabeth May just will not stop talking. Suddenly things are very different as Harper has had to do all sorts of apologizing. This certainly is not the position he wanted to be in his fight for a majority.
After all, any time apologizing is less time for him to be talking about his great sweater vest.
(EDITORIAL TANGENT: If family really is everything, then why is he fighting for a job that will keep him away from his wife and children for so much of the year?)
Now before any doom and gloom talk starts about the sweater unraveling, the Conservatives are still running a solid campaign. The attack ads on Dion seem to be working, and Harper has done a great job of dividing his opposition. The party continues to gain ground in Quebec, which is a real threat to the Bloc, but their numbers in Ontario and BC seem to have stagnated.
The latest Globe and Mail Poll (accessed September 21, 2008 at approx. 8pm EDT) has them sitting at 38% of the vote, slightly up from the 36% they won with in 2006. While this increase is good, it is a drop from where they were two short weeks ago, when everything seemed to be going wrong.
All in all, they should gain a solid 5-12 seats. While successful, this is a far cry from the 28 they need to get a majority.
So what do they have to do to fix things? Plain and simply, shut up. Since coming into power in 2006, Harper has done a masterful job keeping control on his own party. He needs to go back to those ways. High profile members of the party need to realize that nothing is off the record during an election time.
Many Canadians have been mistrustful of Harper, and the Conservatives in general. These series of gaffes, are making people wonder just what kind of people the powers that be really are. Do they really think that everyone who speaks out against them is doing so because of an allegiance to another party? Do they really think that all Algonquins are drunks? Are they all bullies, resorting to sophomoric jokes about their opposition? Do they really hope that their critics will die of Listerios?
Even a bleeding heart like me will agree that the answer to most of the above questions is "probably not". But the fact that they are being asked at a crucial time does not bode well for the party at all.
The Conservative spin doctors need to go into overdrive to make the party appear more gentle, and quite frankly, likable. If Canadians are going to trust them with the next four years, they need to know that they are not insensitive, immoral monsters.
Because right now, they are really coming across as wolves in sheep's sweater-vests.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
The Conservative Party of Canada
Leader: Stephen HarperSince: 2004
Leader's Riding: Calgary Southwest
Seats at Dissolution: 127
Major Issues: Social Conservatism, Tax Cuts, Shutting up their Cabinet
(DISCLAIMER: Before I get started once again, let me point out my obvious political views. I am not a fan of this party what so ever. Just as in my last post, I shall do my best to remain objective, and I apologize if I am not able to do so.)
Two weeks ago, everything was going to so well. What happened?
Immediately after Parliament was dissolved, things were looking great for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party. They were gaining big in the battleground ridings, and it looked like they may be able to get the first right-wing majority government in fifteen years. All that they had to do was run a campaign even half as efficiently as they did in 2006 and they would be able to pick up another 30 seats, and a majority government would be theirs.
But then puffins pooed, Ryan Sparrow spoke ill of a man who lost his son, jokes were made about cold cuts and drunk natives, the US Economy is on the verge of collapsing, and that damn Elizabeth May just will not stop talking. Suddenly things are very different as Harper has had to do all sorts of apologizing. This certainly is not the position he wanted to be in his fight for a majority.
After all, any time apologizing is less time for him to be talking about his great sweater vest.
(EDITORIAL TANGENT: If family really is everything, then why is he fighting for a job that will keep him away from his wife and children for so much of the year?)
Now before any doom and gloom talk starts about the sweater unraveling, the Conservatives are still running a solid campaign. The attack ads on Dion seem to be working, and Harper has done a great job of dividing his opposition. The party continues to gain ground in Quebec, which is a real threat to the Bloc, but their numbers in Ontario and BC seem to have stagnated.
The latest Globe and Mail Poll (accessed September 21, 2008 at approx. 8pm EDT) has them sitting at 38% of the vote, slightly up from the 36% they won with in 2006. While this increase is good, it is a drop from where they were two short weeks ago, when everything seemed to be going wrong.
All in all, they should gain a solid 5-12 seats. While successful, this is a far cry from the 28 they need to get a majority.
So what do they have to do to fix things? Plain and simply, shut up. Since coming into power in 2006, Harper has done a masterful job keeping control on his own party. He needs to go back to those ways. High profile members of the party need to realize that nothing is off the record during an election time.
Many Canadians have been mistrustful of Harper, and the Conservatives in general. These series of gaffes, are making people wonder just what kind of people the powers that be really are. Do they really think that everyone who speaks out against them is doing so because of an allegiance to another party? Do they really think that all Algonquins are drunks? Are they all bullies, resorting to sophomoric jokes about their opposition? Do they really hope that their critics will die of Listerios?
Even a bleeding heart like me will agree that the answer to most of the above questions is "probably not". But the fact that they are being asked at a crucial time does not bode well for the party at all.
The Conservative spin doctors need to go into overdrive to make the party appear more gentle, and quite frankly, likable. If Canadians are going to trust them with the next four years, they need to know that they are not insensitive, immoral monsters.
Because right now, they are really coming across as wolves in sheep's sweater-vests.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
An Outsider's Perspective - Part IV - The Liberals
Here we are in Part 4 of this 5 part series. Today we look at the party that governed our country for 13 years, but has since fallen down to the ranks of Official Opposition, hoping to rise once more.
The Liberal Party of Canada
Current Leader: Stephane Dion
Since: 2006
Leader's Riding: Saint-Laurent -- Cartierville
Seats at Dissolution: 95
Major Issues: Carbon Taxes, Polarizing the Electon, Rebranding Stephane Dion
(DISCLAMER: Before I get started here, I would like to direct people's attention to one of the first posts I made back in 2006, after Stephane Dion won the Liberal Leadership. The reason I ask you to give that post a whirl, is because in it I express my high record for Stephane Dion and the Liberal party. I have tried in the first three posts to be as objective as possible, however that may be difficult given my emotional attachment here.)
It's been a rough year for Stephane. Since January, he has been the subject of countless attack ads by the Conservative Government. It seems that every few months they choose some new way to go after him, in actions that remind me of the worst kind of bullying you see in High School. I mean, seriously, if a teenager made something like notaleader.ca, they would be suspended from school, no questions asked. Funny how we hold our kids to higher standards than our politicians.
Sorry, there goes that bias thing I was warning you about, allow me to start over.
Dion, after being the subject to many attack ads, has seen the Liberal numbers drop in some very key ridings, inching the Conservatives closer and closer to a Majority Government. This has caused many to wonder about Dion's leadership credentials, and has lead to a great many talk about replacing him with a different candidate in the very near future.
The Liberal machine has gone into overdrive to rebrand Dion from all of the Conservative attack ads. First by launching a counter side ThisIsDion.ca, where they show pictures and videos of Stephane Dion playing floor hockey, and going fishing. A far cry from the babbling oaf talking about the difficulty of making priorities. Also, Dion has been appearing more often with some of his "Dream Team" such as Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, and Gerrard Kennedy, hoping that if people are fans of any of them, that they will throw their support behind Dion. Also, he has been highlighting the power of the Liberal Party as a whole, which contrasts a great deal to Harper's cabinet, made up of people who either get no or bad publicity.
In order to win this election, or lose it less, the Liberals need to do two more important things: Talk about the economy, and tap into Canadians mistrust of the Conservatives.
With clouds getting cast over the US economy, obviously fears are moving North of the Border. Dion has already started talking about the Liberals fiscal records during the Chretien and Martin years, but he needs to highlight this more and more. It was Brian Mulroney in power during the recession of the early 90s, and it was Chretien in power during the economic boom of the mid and late 90s.
People are concerned about rising taxes, fuel costs, and grocery bills. The thing is that Dion has an answer for these things, The Green Shift. This has to be one of the worst publicized great ideas ever. It will help save Canadians money, plain and simple. Yes, it raises energy costs, but it cuts taxes across the board, and encourages companies to look into greener technologies. Yes, it is confusing, but it will help people save money, plain and simple. What the Liberals need to do, is lay down exactly how much money a family of 4, with an income of say $70, 000 will save as a result of this plan, then people will start to understand.
Secondly, the Liberals need to realize that this is not the same political climate that it was for them in the 1990s. Then, there was the Reform (or Alliance) and the Progressive Conservatives, who dividing the Right Wing vote, and the Liberals were able to gather the centre vote with relative ease. Now, things are different, as the NDP and Greens have emerged as larger players, and the Bloc has moved farther Left. This squeezes the Liberals on both sides.
However, many Canadians have a certain mistrust of Harper and the Conservative Party. Dion needs to tell people time and time again, that the Liberals are the only party that is in any kind of position to dethrone the Conservatives. He needs to polarize this election, and he needs to do it fast. If the Liberals are going to have any kind of success, then this election needs to be about Liberals vs. Conservatives.
Harper can very clearly see this. This is why at one point he said that he was just as worried about Layton as he was Dion. He was trying to empower the NDP base, to take away votes from the Liberals.
When I first started this series, a short ten days ago, I was convinced that the Liberals would lose somewhere around 20 seats to the Conservative Juggernaut. However, since the campaign started, the Conservatives have been making mistake after mistake, from puffins, to jokes in poor taste, to misusing the RCMP. Couple this with Canadian fears about the economy, and I am not so certain. While I still think that there will be another Conservative Minority (like I said back in January), I think that the Liberals will have very little change, just like the NDPs.
In the earlier blog post that I referenced, I said proudly "I honestly and sincerely hope that this Conservative Minority comes to a close and we can vote Dion in as soon as possible. He may just end up being the best Prime Minister we have had in a long time."
And yes, several attack ads later, I still feel the same. Sadly, though I only have one vote, and I fear that will note be enough.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
The Liberal Party of Canada
Current Leader: Stephane Dion
Since: 2006
Leader's Riding: Saint-Laurent -- Cartierville
Seats at Dissolution: 95
Major Issues: Carbon Taxes, Polarizing the Electon, Rebranding Stephane Dion
(DISCLAMER: Before I get started here, I would like to direct people's attention to one of the first posts I made back in 2006, after Stephane Dion won the Liberal Leadership. The reason I ask you to give that post a whirl, is because in it I express my high record for Stephane Dion and the Liberal party. I have tried in the first three posts to be as objective as possible, however that may be difficult given my emotional attachment here.)
It's been a rough year for Stephane. Since January, he has been the subject of countless attack ads by the Conservative Government. It seems that every few months they choose some new way to go after him, in actions that remind me of the worst kind of bullying you see in High School. I mean, seriously, if a teenager made something like notaleader.ca, they would be suspended from school, no questions asked. Funny how we hold our kids to higher standards than our politicians.
Sorry, there goes that bias thing I was warning you about, allow me to start over.
Dion, after being the subject to many attack ads, has seen the Liberal numbers drop in some very key ridings, inching the Conservatives closer and closer to a Majority Government. This has caused many to wonder about Dion's leadership credentials, and has lead to a great many talk about replacing him with a different candidate in the very near future.
The Liberal machine has gone into overdrive to rebrand Dion from all of the Conservative attack ads. First by launching a counter side ThisIsDion.ca, where they show pictures and videos of Stephane Dion playing floor hockey, and going fishing. A far cry from the babbling oaf talking about the difficulty of making priorities. Also, Dion has been appearing more often with some of his "Dream Team" such as Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, and Gerrard Kennedy, hoping that if people are fans of any of them, that they will throw their support behind Dion. Also, he has been highlighting the power of the Liberal Party as a whole, which contrasts a great deal to Harper's cabinet, made up of people who either get no or bad publicity.
In order to win this election, or lose it less, the Liberals need to do two more important things: Talk about the economy, and tap into Canadians mistrust of the Conservatives.
With clouds getting cast over the US economy, obviously fears are moving North of the Border. Dion has already started talking about the Liberals fiscal records during the Chretien and Martin years, but he needs to highlight this more and more. It was Brian Mulroney in power during the recession of the early 90s, and it was Chretien in power during the economic boom of the mid and late 90s.
People are concerned about rising taxes, fuel costs, and grocery bills. The thing is that Dion has an answer for these things, The Green Shift. This has to be one of the worst publicized great ideas ever. It will help save Canadians money, plain and simple. Yes, it raises energy costs, but it cuts taxes across the board, and encourages companies to look into greener technologies. Yes, it is confusing, but it will help people save money, plain and simple. What the Liberals need to do, is lay down exactly how much money a family of 4, with an income of say $70, 000 will save as a result of this plan, then people will start to understand.
Secondly, the Liberals need to realize that this is not the same political climate that it was for them in the 1990s. Then, there was the Reform (or Alliance) and the Progressive Conservatives, who dividing the Right Wing vote, and the Liberals were able to gather the centre vote with relative ease. Now, things are different, as the NDP and Greens have emerged as larger players, and the Bloc has moved farther Left. This squeezes the Liberals on both sides.
However, many Canadians have a certain mistrust of Harper and the Conservative Party. Dion needs to tell people time and time again, that the Liberals are the only party that is in any kind of position to dethrone the Conservatives. He needs to polarize this election, and he needs to do it fast. If the Liberals are going to have any kind of success, then this election needs to be about Liberals vs. Conservatives.
Harper can very clearly see this. This is why at one point he said that he was just as worried about Layton as he was Dion. He was trying to empower the NDP base, to take away votes from the Liberals.
When I first started this series, a short ten days ago, I was convinced that the Liberals would lose somewhere around 20 seats to the Conservative Juggernaut. However, since the campaign started, the Conservatives have been making mistake after mistake, from puffins, to jokes in poor taste, to misusing the RCMP. Couple this with Canadian fears about the economy, and I am not so certain. While I still think that there will be another Conservative Minority (like I said back in January), I think that the Liberals will have very little change, just like the NDPs.
In the earlier blog post that I referenced, I said proudly "I honestly and sincerely hope that this Conservative Minority comes to a close and we can vote Dion in as soon as possible. He may just end up being the best Prime Minister we have had in a long time."
And yes, several attack ads later, I still feel the same. Sadly, though I only have one vote, and I fear that will note be enough.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
An Outsider's Perspective - Part III - Bloc Quebecois
We continue our look at the five major political parties in Canada. Today our focus shifts to the Eastern portion of Central Canada and a party that has the potential to lose a lot of ground, as the major battles in this election are taking place right on its door step.
Bloc Quebecois
Current Leader: Gilles Duceppe
Since: 1997
Leader's Riding: Laurier - Sainte Marie
Seats at Dissolution: 48
Major Issues: Quebec Sovereignty, Left-Wing Nationalist, Remaining Relevant
In my travels, I have frequently entered into political conversations with people from all over the world. Whenever I try to explain Canadian politics, and our myriad of parties, I always struggle explaining the Bloc Quebecois. People from other countries have difficulty understanding a party that runs in only one province, but is still consistently one of the top parties in the country (including one stint as official opposition).
This failure to comprehend the relevance of the Bloc appears to be Gilles Duceppe's biggest problem, as this mindset seems to be creeping its way into Quebec. With the sponsorship scandal raging, the Bloc were expected to make huge gains in the 2006 election, however they ended up losing three seats, after the Conservatives made huge strides in Quebec.
With the Gomery Inquiry being little more than a memory in Quebec, it seems like the Liberals may be able to rebound in the province. Also the NDP are making noise about competing with the Bloc for the Left Wing vote.
However, the biggest threat to the Bloc are definetly the Conservatives. They made a huge break through in Quebec for the first time in decades in 2006, and remain poised to do even more. Harper has been making a huge push towards Right Wing Seperatists, which are growing in numbers in the wake of the ADQ's success in the last provincial election.
Like Jack Layton, Gilles Duceppe has to be worried about this election. Back in May 2007, Duceppe resigned as the leader of the Bloc in order to run for the leadership of the Parti Quebecois, only to change his mind the next day, when it became obvious that he would have legitimate competition for it. It appears that even Duceppe himself sees the BQ ship sinking, and he at least tried to get off.
This is also his fifth election as the leader of the party. During his first two elections he saw his support dwindle, losing Official Opposition status, his next two saw the support rebound, but mostly as a result of the Sponsorship Scandal. He knows that not only is his job in question, but so is his legacy, and there do not seem to be too many people in line to take it from him.
The Bloc's all-time low for seats was 38 in the 2000 election, and I would not be at all surprised if they will be around, or below that number in a few weeks. Duceppe is getting pushed from the Left, pushed from the Right, and pushed from inside of himself, he's bound to have a rough October.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
Bloc QuebecoisCurrent Leader: Gilles Duceppe
Since: 1997
Leader's Riding: Laurier - Sainte Marie
Seats at Dissolution: 48
Major Issues: Quebec Sovereignty, Left-Wing Nationalist, Remaining Relevant
In my travels, I have frequently entered into political conversations with people from all over the world. Whenever I try to explain Canadian politics, and our myriad of parties, I always struggle explaining the Bloc Quebecois. People from other countries have difficulty understanding a party that runs in only one province, but is still consistently one of the top parties in the country (including one stint as official opposition).
This failure to comprehend the relevance of the Bloc appears to be Gilles Duceppe's biggest problem, as this mindset seems to be creeping its way into Quebec. With the sponsorship scandal raging, the Bloc were expected to make huge gains in the 2006 election, however they ended up losing three seats, after the Conservatives made huge strides in Quebec.
With the Gomery Inquiry being little more than a memory in Quebec, it seems like the Liberals may be able to rebound in the province. Also the NDP are making noise about competing with the Bloc for the Left Wing vote.
However, the biggest threat to the Bloc are definetly the Conservatives. They made a huge break through in Quebec for the first time in decades in 2006, and remain poised to do even more. Harper has been making a huge push towards Right Wing Seperatists, which are growing in numbers in the wake of the ADQ's success in the last provincial election.
Like Jack Layton, Gilles Duceppe has to be worried about this election. Back in May 2007, Duceppe resigned as the leader of the Bloc in order to run for the leadership of the Parti Quebecois, only to change his mind the next day, when it became obvious that he would have legitimate competition for it. It appears that even Duceppe himself sees the BQ ship sinking, and he at least tried to get off.
This is also his fifth election as the leader of the party. During his first two elections he saw his support dwindle, losing Official Opposition status, his next two saw the support rebound, but mostly as a result of the Sponsorship Scandal. He knows that not only is his job in question, but so is his legacy, and there do not seem to be too many people in line to take it from him.
The Bloc's all-time low for seats was 38 in the 2000 election, and I would not be at all surprised if they will be around, or below that number in a few weeks. Duceppe is getting pushed from the Left, pushed from the Right, and pushed from inside of himself, he's bound to have a rough October.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
Monday, September 15, 2008
An Outsider's Perspective - Part II - The New Democratic Party
Today we go into part 2 of the Outsider's Perspective, with a look at Canada's Fourth Party, who face a series of uphill battles if they hope to improve upon their success of the last election.
New Democratic Party
Current Leader: Jack Layton
Since: 2003
Leader's Riding: Toronto-Danforth
Seats at Dissolution: 30
Major Issues: Afghanistan, Elizabeth May at debates, being taken seriously
Jack's in trouble and he knows it.
After the 2006, the NDP received their second highest seat total ever, and the highest total for any fourth party in the country's history. Surely this should be a great cause for success, but there is trouble lurking around the corner.
The rise of the Green Party has put the NDP in very unfamiliar territory. They have always been the party that took votes away from disenchanted Liberals, who felt marginalized in their own party. Now, here they sit with the Greens having the potential to do the same to them.
Now Jack Layton has repeatedly said that he is running to be Prime Minister of the country, but surely, he must join the other thirty odd million Canadians who see that as being highly unlikely. He is obviously making these claims to counter Elizabeth May's support for the Liberals, and Stephane Dion's claims that he is the only one that can prevent a Conservative government.
In my last post, I mentioned Elizabeth May's exclusion from the debates. Jack Layton was one of the people who blatantly opposed her involvement. He received so much backlash from his supporters that he has since changed his position on the issue. Given the NDP's socialist roots, it is no surprise that so many supporters wanted everyone to get a fair shake. One has to wonder just how many people on the left-of-center will change their vote given Layton's position(s) on this controversial issue.
Another major issue for the NDP is Canada's mission in Afghanistan. They have opposed it for a great deal of time, and want an immediate withdraw. The Liberals and Conservatives feel that Canadian troops should stay for a few years longer to finish what they have started. As more and more somber repatriation ceremonies occur in Trenton, one has to wonder if more and more Canadians will vote for the NDP in order to stop Canadian involvement in the conflict.
The NDP are involved in several key battleground ridings in British Columbia, that the Conservatives must win in order to form a majority. After seeing his poll numbers drop at dissolution, his support has since rise, and it shows that we are in for a fight out West between the two parties. Layton also seems to think that his party is poised for breakthroughs in Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. One has to wonder if Layton is overly optimistic, lying, or just plain delusional.
The left-wing voters in Quebec are very clearly going to vote for the Bloc. Saskatchewan has some potential, given the province's on-again-off-again love affair of the left, however, they seem to be on a break for the time being. And Alberta is Conservative country, no question. This is similar to John McCain saying that he would break through in California, it just won't happen, sorry.
So really for the NDP, the best bet for them will be to stay at or about the same level that they are, 30 seats is quite respectable, especially for a fourth party. However, this is Layton's third election as party leader, and if he can't gain more support than before, one has to wonder just how much longer the left-wing-powers-that-be will keep him around for. I think that the this is why Layton opposed May's inclusion at the debates, and this is why he is saying that he is running for Prime Minister, and this is why he started the campaign trail with the most frantic pace of any leader, criss-crossing the country.
He knows that his time as leader rests in the results of this election, and he needs to improve on his party's 30 seat performance from 2006. Sadly, for Layton, it's just not in the cards for him. Like I said, Jack's in trouble and he knows it.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
New Democratic PartyCurrent Leader: Jack Layton
Since: 2003
Leader's Riding: Toronto-Danforth
Seats at Dissolution: 30
Major Issues: Afghanistan, Elizabeth May at debates, being taken seriously
Jack's in trouble and he knows it.
After the 2006, the NDP received their second highest seat total ever, and the highest total for any fourth party in the country's history. Surely this should be a great cause for success, but there is trouble lurking around the corner.
The rise of the Green Party has put the NDP in very unfamiliar territory. They have always been the party that took votes away from disenchanted Liberals, who felt marginalized in their own party. Now, here they sit with the Greens having the potential to do the same to them.
Now Jack Layton has repeatedly said that he is running to be Prime Minister of the country, but surely, he must join the other thirty odd million Canadians who see that as being highly unlikely. He is obviously making these claims to counter Elizabeth May's support for the Liberals, and Stephane Dion's claims that he is the only one that can prevent a Conservative government.
In my last post, I mentioned Elizabeth May's exclusion from the debates. Jack Layton was one of the people who blatantly opposed her involvement. He received so much backlash from his supporters that he has since changed his position on the issue. Given the NDP's socialist roots, it is no surprise that so many supporters wanted everyone to get a fair shake. One has to wonder just how many people on the left-of-center will change their vote given Layton's position(s) on this controversial issue.
Another major issue for the NDP is Canada's mission in Afghanistan. They have opposed it for a great deal of time, and want an immediate withdraw. The Liberals and Conservatives feel that Canadian troops should stay for a few years longer to finish what they have started. As more and more somber repatriation ceremonies occur in Trenton, one has to wonder if more and more Canadians will vote for the NDP in order to stop Canadian involvement in the conflict.
The NDP are involved in several key battleground ridings in British Columbia, that the Conservatives must win in order to form a majority. After seeing his poll numbers drop at dissolution, his support has since rise, and it shows that we are in for a fight out West between the two parties. Layton also seems to think that his party is poised for breakthroughs in Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. One has to wonder if Layton is overly optimistic, lying, or just plain delusional.
The left-wing voters in Quebec are very clearly going to vote for the Bloc. Saskatchewan has some potential, given the province's on-again-off-again love affair of the left, however, they seem to be on a break for the time being. And Alberta is Conservative country, no question. This is similar to John McCain saying that he would break through in California, it just won't happen, sorry.
So really for the NDP, the best bet for them will be to stay at or about the same level that they are, 30 seats is quite respectable, especially for a fourth party. However, this is Layton's third election as party leader, and if he can't gain more support than before, one has to wonder just how much longer the left-wing-powers-that-be will keep him around for. I think that the this is why Layton opposed May's inclusion at the debates, and this is why he is saying that he is running for Prime Minister, and this is why he started the campaign trail with the most frantic pace of any leader, criss-crossing the country.
He knows that his time as leader rests in the results of this election, and he needs to improve on his party's 30 seat performance from 2006. Sadly, for Layton, it's just not in the cards for him. Like I said, Jack's in trouble and he knows it.
Until next time,
G
Part I - The Green Party of Canada - September 9, 2008
Part II - The NDP - September 15, 2008
Part III - The Bloc Quebecois - September 16, 2008
Part IV - The Liberal Party of Canada - September 19, 2008
Part V - The Conservative Party of Canada - September 21, 2008
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